We need more people

It's official, we are shrinking. The most recent population estimates from Statistics New Zealand reveal we have fewer people living in Hawke's Bay than a year ago.

Population growth is a major driver of economic activity. More people means more houses, more tradesmen, more appliances, more roads, in fact more of just about everything.

For many decades we have rated as the 5th largest population  centre in the country, but this may no longer be the case. Almost certainly Tauranga has eclipsed us and Dunedin is not far behind. Less people means contraction, and lets not fool ourselves, that is where we are heading unless we find ways to turn things around.

Generally anyone setting up new businesses need to be where the action is. Big cities are huge magnets dragging in even more people, more jobs more everything. If we shrink we will not only fail to attract new employers, we will likely start loosing some of those we have.

Already Auckland is ten times larger than all of Hawke's Bay. Projections of another million in our largest city when we are expect to remain static means in just a few decades Auckland will be nearly 20 times larger.

Already our best and brightest young are being sucked out at an alarming rate, attracted by educational opportunities jobs and the lure of the bright lights. We will never match Auckland for size or growth but if we allow ourselves to start contracting we will soon find ourselves in deep trouble.

For a start we will loose what little political bargaining power we still have. Suddenly services we take for granted will be sourced elsewhere. Areas such as specialist medical services and education will likely be early casualties. This already happens but it could be very much worse.

Last month the city of Detroit, once home of the automobile industry, declared itself bankrupt owing $US 18 billion. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of residents declined by 250,000 continuing a pattern that has seen the city population decline by some 60% from it's 1950's peak.  

I take some small comfort in the fact that the Mayor of Hastings agreed with me when he recently wrote  “Hawke's Bay needs to wake up to what is happening to our economy and region.” (HBT 2/7/13) Sadly though, I have to point out that we are in this sorry state after he has spent nearly two decades on council, twelve as Mayor. 

Hawke's Bay's leadership has been too engrossed for far too long with building monuments such as Splash Plant, the Opera House, the Aquarium and Museum. Looking at all the concrete and glass knowing it was “their baby” makes them feel good . The problem is the economic justification has been weak, so inevitably these structures have become a burden on ratepayers. In Hastings this has been especially severe because the projects have been debt financed.

Such projects may have served political objectives but have done nothing to improve economic performance, and it is the latter we badly need.

There is an unwillingness by our leadership to acknowledge the true state of affairs. I was told recently that we must be positive. My response is we must acknowledge our problems if we have any hope of solving them. So how are we to turn things around?  

Tourism a mainstay of our economy struggles as visitor numbers decline according to the Statistics New Zealand Commercial Accommodation Monitor.

We need to do something about the inadequacy of our air services. If we were as close to Auckland as Hamilton and other places are, it would not be an issue, but many of the destinations we compete with are much closer to our major cities, and/or have more affordable air connections. The tyranny of  Air New Zealand's  monopoly position must be broken if we want Hawke's Bay to be an attractive place to visit.

Better air services will also help us retain and attract businesses. Any  organisation trading with the rest of the country or the world needs to travel, and if we are more expensive or difficult than elsewhere then we will be less competitive.

To cap it all off, yet another independent report, the Winder report stage 1 tells us that our work force is under qualified and we have only half the national average percentage of university graduates.

Huge amounts of money are being sucked out of our economy so our young can receive the education they need. We need more of this money to stay here and we need the job opportunities a bigger and more diverse education offering would provide.

We all know we have a great climate, an enjoyable lifestyle, and fairly affordable housing. That's why so many of us came and stayed. Whilst we are attractive to those at, or approaching the end of their working lives it is clear people are leaving in droves, and these are the young, the brightest, and the most motivated. 

This sorry state of affairs has not just happened. It has been clear for for many years that Hawke's Bay was slipping behind. If our leaders have failed to see the signs and develop growth policies, there is little chance they will do so if returned to office in the forth coming elections