Visitor figures misleading

British PM Benjamin Disraeli is credited with being the first to use the phrase “Lies damn lies and Statistics”

Its a very apt description of the situation involving visitor statistics for Hawke's Bay. Each month accommodation providers throughout the country submit figures from their guest registers thereby effectively measuring the health of the tourism industry. The results published as regional visitor nights are broken into domestic and international, and by type of accommodation, motels, backpackers, hotels and camping grounds. Generally any errors in design are repeated every year so the figures probably give a reasonable indication of direction, if not absolute accuracy.

The problem is a new element has suddenly emerged in Hawke's Bay which is seriously distorting the figures. Due to serious labour shortages on orchards and vinyards up to 5000 temporary “guest workers” are being bought in each season to provide the necessary work force especially during harvest. The bulk of these workers are from low wage countries in Asia and the Pacific. Their remittances must be invaluable to their families, while potentially of course reducing our obligations to provide official aid.

They are also hugely valuable to our economy because of the work they do, and the money they are spending on supplies such as groceries and accommodation. This spending could be worth as much as one million dollars a week to the local economy.

Many live on their employees properties in caravans and other housing. Some also stay in budget motel accommodation. One such establishment has been housing around 100 such workers which does not sound that many until it is remembered they stay for months. So one hundred people staying for 30 nights adds 3000 to international visitor totals which in May were 13,647 out of nearly the 60 000 total visitors.

Local Regional Council offshoot Hawkes Bay Inc recently crowed about the May international bed nights increasing by 1780 or 15%. Somewhat different to the experience of many in the accommodation industry who are finding conditions are the worst they can remember. Also very much better the 5% reduction in visitor arrivals for the country as a whole, adding weight to the doubt.

International guest night s using backpacker accommodation increased by 2041 for May YOY a larger number than the 1780 for all accommodation categories. There is no reason and no evidence backpacker tourism is growing. Almost certainly this number reflects pickers staying at backpacker type accommodation. This suggests without seasonal workers our international guest nights would in all probability have DECREASED.

Does it matter? Well the real worry is it will reinforce the poor decisions already made made leading to more bad decisions. It serves no purpose other than boosting the egos of those involved. This can be demonstrated by the somewhat fanciful claims by Venture Hawkes Bay CEO that the increase in international visitors is due to their media hosting programme and other initiatives. Somewhat inappropriate considering the true numbers have probably declined. It also understates the continuing and successful promotional efforts of the Napier and Hastings Councils.

If we are serious about increasing visitor numbers reducing air fares and increasing seat availability might do more. If the $1.5million spent by the Regional Council to support Venture Hawke's Bay was instead spent on the airport an infinitely greater return could be obtained.