The way forward

The grand plan for Hawke's Bay is not working. Economic indices including recent retail turnover figures are mostly heading the wrong way, and we are regularly bottom ranked in regional comparisons.

Official population figures reveal near zero growth mainly because more people are leaving than arriving. We may no longer be the 5th largest urban area in the country and soon we could drop to 7th.

Whilst things will turn around as they always do this might just give us a false sense of well being.  Sure we must stay positive, but if we don't acknowledge the problems, we will never find the solutions necessary to lift us from the bottom of the heap. We must find options for getting more money into our economy, more people, more factories, more retailers, more businesses, and more jobs, plus  an increased share of the right sort of government spending.

While councils do have have a critical role to play, big ideas like the Civic Centre upgrade or the Museum will make little difference. The obligation on Councils to promote social, economic, environmental and cultural well being has been removed from local government responsibilities, but meeting these requirements often produced little of value despite costing ratepayers millions of dollars. Councils role in contributing to economic stimulus might be better concentrated on reducing costs, rates and fees, and leaving more money in peoples pockets, thereby improving the vitality of our businesses and rural enterprises.

The Regional Council's Ruatanawha Water storage project could make a difference and we are told it will create 2000 new jobs and add millions to our GDP. All good if it happens but the cost is estimated to be $230 million and the economics have yet to be verified. What will the water cost, and can farmers afford it? What risks are being imposed on ratepayers without their knowledge, and does the HBRC  have the expertise to handle such an immense scheme. Most importantly it is a long term project that could take 10 years or more to bear fruit and we badly need a leg up  before then.

Whilst we don't want to become another Auckland, we really do need more people living here, and more visiting. Cruise ships are delivering a very useful 100 000 day trippers each year but that is less than the reduction in recent years of our  traditional customers, who stay longer, spend more, and provide a broader spread of benefits. Placing so much importance on ship visits is also a risky strategy as evidenced by Celebrity Cruises deciding to bypass us this season. 

However boosting tourism is probably the only way we can get a lift in activity without taking huge risks. More visitors will create more jobs, encourage new businesses, and generally improve vitality. We particularly need to win back the very beneficial conference trade we seem to have lost.

Of course we are dreaming if we expect this to happen when we have some of the highest air fares in the country. International travellers from our traditional markets such as the USA, UK and Europe are also declining, but realistically we are unlikely to make up the losses from the fast growing Chinese segment. Australia still provides nearly half this countries international arrivals, and if we are to prosper we must have direct Aussie flights.

This means we must regain control of the airport, meaning the entire board needs to be  replaced with people of vision who understand just how vitally important it is that we have competitive transport links.

We also need to coordinate our tourism activities. How is it all three councils have separate tourism operations, and why is the Regional Council even involved, when the Napier and Hastings Councils  control almost every aspect of the visitor trade. 

Whilst getting more people living here permanently is essential, actually making it happen is a huge challenge. Perhaps a simpler way might be to   provide better educational opportunities so our young don't have to go elsewhere, often to never return. The 9 000 students at EIT is about the same number as polytechnics in Hamilton, Palmerston North and Dunedin, but all these centres also have universities. Otago University has a staggering  21 000 students,  Waikato 12 000 students plus 2000 academic staff, and Massey Manawatu has 8500 students.

We need concrete proposals to add 10 000 additional full time equivalent academic places within 10 years. We cannot continue to accept excuses from Government(s) and others for not making it happen. A university level establishment could attract thousands of highly paid professionals, would bring in hundreds of millions of dollars of new spending each year, and would save Hawke's Bay families many tens of millions  in accommodations costs that they are now having to spend elsewhere.
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We must also give urgency to putting right the under achievement by far too many Maori and Pacifika. In just a few years these groups could comprise 40% of people entering our workforce. Welfare is a shrinking option. We must transform these people into an motivated, educated, and highly productive resource to create improved prosperity for us all.

Perhaps others have better ideas but what ever they are they must be achievable.  If we don't change how we do things in the future, we are going to get the same outcomes as in the past. If we don't do something soon we are going to be asking the last person leaving to turn out the lights.