Last week during a submission on the Hawke's Bay Regional Council 10 year plan, Wine Country Tourism revealed the disastrous state of our visitor industry. In addition to pointing out our visitor numbers have been in decline for 10 years, they also disclosed Hawkes Bay has one of the lowest international visitor numbers of any region in the country. This latter point should not be a surprise because the situation had been pointed out to all 3 councils just two years ago by consulting companies APR and BERL as part of their airport investigations.
Clearly the true position totally challenges the endless feel good PR pushed out by the councils and others who want us to think things are hunky dory. Of course if they had revealed the truth it would have raised serious questions about the competence of those whose job it is to drive the visitor industry.
HBWCT were asking the Regional Council to inject some urgency into the coordination of tourism activities and to expedite the development of a comprehensive visitor strategy. The Regional Council manages Hawke's Bay Inc which was formed in 2005 as a successor to Vision 20/20 and is funded equally by the 3 councils.
During the presentation it was disclosed they do not expect to have a visitor strategy until 2010/11 begging the question why they are in charge of tourism at all? Since its inception Hawke's Bay Inc seem to have accomplished little so it is probably unrealistic to expect an effective tourism strategy.
In the past 4½ years over $7 million of ratepayer funding has been poured in, yet little of value has been delivered other than a rumored $120 000 salary for the Chief Executive and mushrooming staff numbers. Clearly there has been major people problems because in spite of the remuneration it took nearly a year to find the first chief executive who then left within a year, and was replaced by an expatriate bought back from Singapore at great expense. He also left on completion of his obligatory 12 months. So we are now onto the 3rd Chief Executive in just over 4 years.
Our new Government has correctly identified Australia as our best future visitor opportunity. Visitor numbers from Australia have held up well in these troubled times. As fuel prices start to escalate again Australians will find trans Tasman travel quite attractive compared to longer haul trips to Asia, Europe and North America. Relative proximity makes New Zealand attractive but the problem for Hawkes Bay we have no affordable or convenient links. If we want Hawke's Bay to be a part of this we need to get real about travel. The indisputable reality is the modern overseas visitor travels by air, and Hawke's Bay needs decent air services if we are to succeed in attracting a share of these people.
Of course we can't compete because we have an airport that quite simply is inadequate. Visitors arrive in this country to places where there are modern innovative and affordable air services. They normally have a choice of airlines. With choice comes competition, ample seats, and affordability. Not so for Hawke's Bay. Here we are at the mercy of Air New Zealand a monopoly supplier who can provide as many or few seats as they choose, at what ever price they decide on.
For example last week I booked a flight to Auckland for the last Saturday of August, some 14 weeks away. The best price I could get for a one way flight was $160. Last week Emirates were offering return international flights from Christchurch or Auckland to Sydney for just $159. No wonder our visitor numbers are dropping.
We need to question our spending priorities. In addition to funding the Regional Council controlled HB Inc both Napier and Hastings provide significant budgets for visitor activities so total expenditure is much greater than the $7 million spent on HB Inc so far. Had this money been used to upgrade the airport we would now been a position to move forward and cater for the real needs of travelers when economic conditions improve. As it is we are still locked in a 1960's time warp.
There is no point in continuing to spend money trying to entice people to come here if we are not also prepared to provide the necessary transport infrastructure. If we don't want visitors then let stop pretending we do and at least save the money we are now wasting.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Sunday, May 3, 2009
The Population Dilemma
A dose of reality from our civic leaders would not go amiss. In spite of all the hype about how Hawke's Bay is attracting people the statistics tell a different story.
For the year to June 2008 we had an increase in population of just 0.2%. Only Wanganui, Invercargill, Rotorua and Gisborne are growing at a slower rate while the fastest growing regions of Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga all grew by 1.5% or more. Dunedin for years the butt of jokes asking if the last person to leave would turn out the lights, is now growing at about about 3 times our rate.
Longer term statistics tell the same story. Between the 2001 and 2006 censuses the population increased by 3.4% compared to 6.8% for Otago 6.4 % for the Bay of Plenty and 7.8% for the whole country. Projections suggest numbers could start declining within 20 years.
The issue of population growth is especially relevant right now because our councils are now preparing their 10 year plans. Surely the starting point should be the likely number of people living here.
Slow growth may not be bad. Less people means a smaller environmental footprint, but we need to consider this option carefully because growth seems essential to prosperity.
Growing numbers means more houses, more roads, more drains, more water systems, and more just about everything. The people involved in building and doing these things generate incomes which they spend, creating more economic activity.
If we look at Wairoa a downward spiral of people leaving, low prices for houses, a lack of houses being built, and a shortage of jobs seems well under way.
History suggests when the population falls the economy falls over. Ireland lost half its population in the 1800's, the population of Japan has been stable for several decades and declined by 51,000 people in 2008. In Russia the population has dropped about 5 million people since the fall of communism, while the former car capital of the world Detroit USA has lost half its 2 million residents since the 1950's
Wile there was a bit of a lift over the past few years these places seem to be heading back towards their normal depressed states.
There are two forces behind population growth , natural increase and immigration. Demographers claim it needs 2.1 births per couple just to maintain population at a stable level. This level of reproduction now occurs in only a few countries such as India, Africa the Middle East and believe it or not Australia. Most countries in the developed world have no natural increase the result of declining birth rates and the increasing mortality of an ageing population. Where population is growing it tends to be due to immigration (often illegal) from Africa and Middle East.
In Australia immigration accounts for half the 1.22% annual increase.
So back to Hawkes Bay. The fact we are growing slowly is indisputable. For the June 2007 year births exceeded deaths by 1036 yet the estimated overall increase in population was only 400 meaning at least 600 more people must have left than arrived.
This must be depressing the demand for housing and many other developments. Builders and other skilled people will eventually shift elsewhere in search of work and businesses may close down or shift.
Lack of population will also down grade education and health amenities so it will be more difficult to hold or attract skilled and highly paid workers.
Our representation at national level will decline. Thirty years ago we had 3 parliamentary electorates now we have two. In time this will likely decline further to just one. Fewer representatives means a smaller voice in the clamor for resources.
While Government is funding huge projects such as Eden Park, building motorways, electrifying commuter rail systems, and generally boosting the economies of the major urban areas we are being largely ignored. If we continue to shrink relative to the rest of the country we can expect to fall even further behind.
We need to make a conscious decision on the issue of growth. Doing nothing is not an option.
Perhaps its time to ask our Mayors justify their annual trips to the UK immigration fairs. The money spent might be better used finding out why so many people are leaving. Probably they are young and looking for opportunity, education and excitement. It's claimed they eventually come back, but do they? Or perhaps the question should be do they return before they reach their twilight years when their main contribution to the local economy is providing work for caregivers?
For the year to June 2008 we had an increase in population of just 0.2%. Only Wanganui, Invercargill, Rotorua and Gisborne are growing at a slower rate while the fastest growing regions of Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga all grew by 1.5% or more. Dunedin for years the butt of jokes asking if the last person to leave would turn out the lights, is now growing at about about 3 times our rate.
Longer term statistics tell the same story. Between the 2001 and 2006 censuses the population increased by 3.4% compared to 6.8% for Otago 6.4 % for the Bay of Plenty and 7.8% for the whole country. Projections suggest numbers could start declining within 20 years.
The issue of population growth is especially relevant right now because our councils are now preparing their 10 year plans. Surely the starting point should be the likely number of people living here.
Slow growth may not be bad. Less people means a smaller environmental footprint, but we need to consider this option carefully because growth seems essential to prosperity.
Growing numbers means more houses, more roads, more drains, more water systems, and more just about everything. The people involved in building and doing these things generate incomes which they spend, creating more economic activity.
If we look at Wairoa a downward spiral of people leaving, low prices for houses, a lack of houses being built, and a shortage of jobs seems well under way.
History suggests when the population falls the economy falls over. Ireland lost half its population in the 1800's, the population of Japan has been stable for several decades and declined by 51,000 people in 2008. In Russia the population has dropped about 5 million people since the fall of communism, while the former car capital of the world Detroit USA has lost half its 2 million residents since the 1950's
Wile there was a bit of a lift over the past few years these places seem to be heading back towards their normal depressed states.
There are two forces behind population growth , natural increase and immigration. Demographers claim it needs 2.1 births per couple just to maintain population at a stable level. This level of reproduction now occurs in only a few countries such as India, Africa the Middle East and believe it or not Australia. Most countries in the developed world have no natural increase the result of declining birth rates and the increasing mortality of an ageing population. Where population is growing it tends to be due to immigration (often illegal) from Africa and Middle East.
In Australia immigration accounts for half the 1.22% annual increase.
So back to Hawkes Bay. The fact we are growing slowly is indisputable. For the June 2007 year births exceeded deaths by 1036 yet the estimated overall increase in population was only 400 meaning at least 600 more people must have left than arrived.
This must be depressing the demand for housing and many other developments. Builders and other skilled people will eventually shift elsewhere in search of work and businesses may close down or shift.
Lack of population will also down grade education and health amenities so it will be more difficult to hold or attract skilled and highly paid workers.
Our representation at national level will decline. Thirty years ago we had 3 parliamentary electorates now we have two. In time this will likely decline further to just one. Fewer representatives means a smaller voice in the clamor for resources.
While Government is funding huge projects such as Eden Park, building motorways, electrifying commuter rail systems, and generally boosting the economies of the major urban areas we are being largely ignored. If we continue to shrink relative to the rest of the country we can expect to fall even further behind.
We need to make a conscious decision on the issue of growth. Doing nothing is not an option.
Perhaps its time to ask our Mayors justify their annual trips to the UK immigration fairs. The money spent might be better used finding out why so many people are leaving. Probably they are young and looking for opportunity, education and excitement. It's claimed they eventually come back, but do they? Or perhaps the question should be do they return before they reach their twilight years when their main contribution to the local economy is providing work for caregivers?
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