Gaza Update

Published HBT 16/08/14

Hamas cannot win the military battle they have bought with Israel, so why do they bother with their continuing rocket attacks, that actually cause little real damage?  It's not clear how much support Hamas has, but In what other country are the people condemned to die because of the actions of their government? Perhaps Israel has fallen into a trap set by Hamas to provoke a military reaction so as to motivate a whole new generation of militants, suicide bombers, martyrs and others willing to perpetuate the fight. With 50% of the population of Gaza 18 years old or under there may be no shortage of volunteers for decades to come. 

The first casualty of war is truth. Initially Israel claimed Operation Protective Edge that started on 8 July was a response to the rocket attacks from Gaza,. Then they claimed it was the tunnels built to allow insurgents access to Israel. Possibly the real reason is retribution for the murders of the three Israeli teenagers. Israel may have an advantage with its confident english speaking spokespeople but Hamas have the evidence of destruction and hundreds mutilated and dead children. 

Few dispute Israel's right to protect itself. However many are questioning the killing of nearly 2000 people, 73% of them civilians including nearly 500 children, injuring over 10 000 more, driving hundreds of thousands from their homes, destroying the only power station including fuel supplies, wrecking sanitation and water reticulation systems, and ruining untold livelihoods. Rebuilding is estimated cost at least $6 billion.  It is the rest of the world who will eventually foot the bill, not Israel who caused the damage, or the USA who supplied the weapons.   

Israel's battering of Gaza repeats the 1998/99 invasion and the 2011/12 bombing. Despite having every conceivable weapons option including tanks, drones, precision guided bombs plus troops on the ground, the Hamas rocket attacks have not stopped. This military option may eventually fail despite overt support from Egypt and Saudi Arabia who view Hamas as akin to the Muslim Brotherhood, Isis, and Iran, a view supported by many Western countries especially the USA. 

This is different from the previous wars Israel has fought successfully with hostile neighbors because it is essentially a guerrilla campaign where the combatants are indistinguishable from the general population, and hide amongst them. As the USA and French discovered in Vietnam, America, Britain and Russia found in Afghanistan, and again by America in Iraq,  military might does not necessarily produce a successful outcome when the enemy is so elusive. Even the Hamas tunnels have a similarity to Viet Kong tactics that helped wear down the USA in Viet Nam. 

Also time may be running out for Israel because both the UK and Western Europe are becoming increasingly Muslim as a result of both a huge influx of refugees fleeing various Islamic countries, plus their higher birth rates. Muslims already number nearly 3 million( 4.4%)  in UK and are increasing 10 times faster than non Muslims. In the Western European Union 19 million (3.8% )are Muslims and estimates suggest over the next 15 years 85% of population growth will be Muslim This could mean in the not too distant future this group will acquire the political clout to force governments to cease their support for Israel.  

Killing so many non combatants is seem by many as immoral, inhumane and totally excessive, and matching evil with evil will not bring peace or prosperity to the Middle East. Whilst Israeli Prime Minister and hard liner Benjamin Netanyahu has the support of a majority of Israelis they may be loosing the moral high ground. Netanyahu seems incapable of developing a non military solution and his approach has also cost the lives of over 60 Israeli military personal, a terrible price to pay for pandering to public opinion. The Iron Dome missile defense system has ensured Israel was never seriously threatened by primitive Hamas rockets . Whilst the destruction of tunnels was clearly justified it is unlikely they have all been found. Israel is going to have to yield some ground with a political solution and find a way to convince Palestinians they can have a better life without Hamas who for now are the elected legitimate government of Gaza.