Population Growth

Recently released new population projections forecast the number of people in Hawke's Bay will increase by a maximum of 0.2% a year, until 2026 when numbers are expected to start falling. There are only 3 other areas where a decline is forecast.

Some people may think this is good news, after all the planet can only support so many of us. We are using up the worlds renewable, and finite resources at an alarming rate.

Water is under huge pressure and tap water is now obtained from purified sewerage in some places like the UK and parts of Australia. Some fish stocks have been cleaned out and may never recover. Oil production has also plateaued and will likely start declining within the next decade.

So there is a conflict between sustainability and economic survival, however we need a touch of realism.

Hawke's Bay could sink beneath the Pacific Ocean and it would not make a dot of difference to world sustainability. Unless the world at large is willing to grapple with the issue huge economic damage will be done by moving out of sync with the rest of the world.

By 2027 Hawke's Bay is forecast to have another 3000 people. This compares with another 600 000 people for the country overall so we will shrink compared to the rest of the country.

While these numbers are at odds with the 8200 increase expected by 2045, according to the Heretaunga Plains urban development strategy proposed by the Regional Council, both sources are effectively projecting low growth.

The problem with a low growth is two fold. As our share of the nations population diminishes our claim to resources will decline accordingly. Already we seem to miss out on Government spend ups. We have no university, so our young are forced elsewhere. Some of our hospital services are already sourced from Palmerston North and as specialisation intensifies more services could be relocated.

The second problem is population growth is a major driver of economic growth. As more people settle here the economy is stimulated by boosting demand for housing, and infrastructure, such as roads, water, sewerage, airports and so on.

To the people that matter we are recognised as the 5th largest urban area in the country. But by next census we may have slipped to 7th place behind Tauranga and Dunedin, and then suddenly we may find we are just not as important as we used to be.

Nothing will drive people away from an area faster than a lack of jobs, and if more people start leaving more jobs will be lost. Already people are leaving Hawke's Bay in droves and although births are helping off set these losses the net result is low growth.

Population stagnation will mean economic stagnation.

In the city of Detroit in the USA, once the center of American automobile manufacturing industries started leaving, so more businesses packed up. Then even more people lost their livelihood. Within about 40 years the population halved. Suburbs are derelict and abandoned. The city is broke, crime is rampant, and people are still leaving.

If we want a half decent future we must not allow this to happen to Hawke's Bay.

So how fast should we grow? That of course is the key question and I do not know the answer, but I firmly believe 0.2% is way too low.