The Population Dilemma

A dose of reality from our civic leaders would not go amiss. In spite of all the hype about how Hawke's Bay is attracting people the statistics tell a different story.

For the year to June 2008 we had an increase in population of just 0.2%. Only Wanganui, Invercargill, Rotorua and Gisborne are growing at a slower rate while the fastest growing regions of Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga all grew by 1.5% or more. Dunedin for years the butt of jokes asking if the last person to leave would turn out the lights, is now growing at about about 3 times our rate.

Longer term statistics tell the same story. Between the 2001 and 2006 censuses the population increased by 3.4% compared to 6.8% for Otago 6.4 % for the Bay of Plenty and 7.8% for the whole country. Projections suggest numbers could start declining within 20 years.

The issue of population growth is especially relevant right now because our councils are now preparing their 10 year plans. Surely the starting point should be the likely number of people living here.

Slow growth may not be bad. Less people means a smaller environmental footprint, but we need to consider this option carefully because growth seems essential to prosperity.

Growing numbers means more houses, more roads, more drains, more water systems, and more just about everything. The people involved in building and doing these things generate incomes which they spend, creating more economic activity.

If we look at Wairoa a downward spiral of people leaving, low prices for houses, a lack of houses being built, and a shortage of jobs seems well under way.

History suggests when the population falls the economy falls over. Ireland lost half its population in the 1800's, the population of Japan has been stable for several decades and declined by 51,000 people in 2008. In Russia the population has dropped about 5 million people since the fall of communism, while the former car capital of the world Detroit USA has lost half its 2 million residents since the 1950's

Wile there was a bit of a lift over the past few years these places seem to be heading back towards their normal depressed states.

There are two forces behind population growth , natural increase and immigration. Demographers claim it needs 2.1 births per couple just to maintain population at a stable level. This level of reproduction now occurs in only a few countries such as India, Africa the Middle East and believe it or not Australia. Most countries in the developed world have no natural increase the result of declining birth rates and the increasing mortality of an ageing population. Where population is growing it tends to be due to immigration (often illegal) from Africa and Middle East.

In Australia immigration accounts for half the 1.22% annual increase.

So back to Hawkes Bay. The fact we are growing slowly is indisputable. For the June 2007 year births exceeded deaths by 1036 yet the estimated overall increase in population was only 400 meaning at least 600 more people must have left than arrived.

This must be depressing the demand for housing and many other developments. Builders and other skilled people will eventually shift elsewhere in search of work and businesses may close down or shift.

Lack of population will also down grade education and health amenities so it will be more difficult to hold or attract skilled and highly paid workers.

Our representation at national level will decline. Thirty years ago we had 3 parliamentary electorates now we have two. In time this will likely decline further to just one. Fewer representatives means a smaller voice in the clamor for resources.

While Government is funding huge projects such as Eden Park, building motorways, electrifying commuter rail systems, and generally boosting the economies of the major urban areas we are being largely ignored. If we continue to shrink relative to the rest of the country we can expect to fall even further behind.

We need to make a conscious decision on the issue of growth. Doing nothing is not an option.

Perhaps its time to ask our Mayors justify their annual trips to the UK immigration fairs. The money spent might be better used finding out why so many people are leaving. Probably they are young and looking for opportunity, education and excitement. It's claimed they eventually come back, but do they? Or perhaps the question should be do they return before they reach their twilight years when their main contribution to the local economy is providing work for caregivers?